It's one of my favorite times of the year, with the kick-off of the Barclay's Premiership just hours away. 20 teams enter the new season with both monsters and minnows hoping to take home some kind of silver. Who will achieve those goals? Here's are a few predictions (though we all know a blind monkey throwing darts at a board in a dark room will likely do as well as I do).
The Premiership - Though many can hope, realistically the race for the title comes down to four teams, with a fifth pushing hard to be included in that group. In a race that I think will come down to the last several weeks, it will once again be Manchester United raising the trophy. Despite the losses of Christiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid and Carlos Tevez to Manchester City, they still possess a ferocious attack led by Wayne Rooney, Dimitar Berbatov and underrated newcomer Antonio Valencia. The best defense in the league returns intact, though goalkeeper Edwin van der Sar will miss the early season with broken fingers. As a bonus, they have the best manager in England (and maybe all of Europe) in Sir Alex Ferguson. The scorelines may be a little closer, but the end result will be the same: plenty of Red Devil victories. Once again dogging their heels will be Liverpool. Like ManU, The Reds also dealt with a heavy loss over the summer when Xabi Alonso took more of Real Madrid's cash and headed for Spain. That puts an even heavier burden on Steven Gerrard, not the best of developments for a brilliant player who is showing signs of being brittle. The defense is solid, and Pepe Reina is a class keeper, so it should come down to scoring goals . While I do think that Liverpool will give ManU a solid battle, if either Gerrard or equally injury prone striker Fernando Torres is lost for any length of time, I could easily see this team dropping out of the top four. Battling for third will be Arsenal and Chelsea. The Gunners have a potent attack, led by the enormously gifted Andrei Arshavin, Cesc Fabregas, Robin van Persie and Carlos Vela. However, there are two concerns. First is whether the attackers can stay healthy. All 4 missed significant portions of 2008-09, and more injuries could cause Arsene Wenger serious heartburn. The other is can the Gunners keep the ball out of their own net. Manuel Almunia is a quality keeper, but the defense was a weakness last season and doesn't look improved at this point. Chelsea will once again be led by Frank Lampard, John Terry, Michael Essien, Didier Drogba and Nichlas Anelka. The good news is that they form a stable core that new manager Carlo Ancelotti can build around. The bad news is that none of them is getting any younger. Drogba had a poor season in 20008-2009, and Anelka disappeared for the middle third of the season. Keeper Peter Cech is capable of both moments of brilliance and serious howlers. It's a little hard to know what to expect from Chelsea, but I think that Arsenal will pull away at the end of the season to finish third with Chelsea fourth. The wild card here is Manchester City. The new Arab owners have spent a huge amount of money to try to build a contender, but injuries are taking their toll with high priced acquisitions Roque Santa Cruz, Gareth Barry and Kolo Toure already in the training room. There appears little question that they will score goals, led by Tevez and Emmanual Adebayor, but the defense is a huge question. Shay Given is a competent keeper, but were I Mark Hughes I would have looked to upgrade that position. As it stands, I can see ManCity finishing anywhere from 4th to 12th but most likely they will wind up in the 6th-9th place range.
Just two teams comprise the ranks of the hopefuls, in that with a few good breaks they could land a place in European competition. Of them, I like Everton the best. A lot of deadwood was pruned from a 5th place squad over the summer, and several key players who were injured last season, including playmaker Mikel Arteta and striker Yakubu are set to return Add that to a good defense, the best goalkeeper in England in Tim Howard, and a number of young and up coming players, and this is a very solid side. I have some concerns about their depth, but the Toffees will be fighting for a place in Europe in 2010. The other side is Tottenham Hotspur. Herry Redknapp nearly pulled a rabbit out of the hat in leading the team from the relegation depths to a top 8 finish during the second half of 2009. He will be looking to build on that with the addition of Peter Crouch to an already potent attack led by Luca Modric, Robbie Keane and Jermaine Dafoe. Wilson Palacios adds bite in the midfield, while the defense (which was surprisingly strong in the second half last year) relies on stalwarts Ledley King and Jonaathan Woodgate. The chief concerns are the health of King and Woodgate, and the shaky goalkeeping situation, where neither Gomes nor Carlo Cudicini appear to be the answer. Still this is a team with the talent to cause lots of problems, and perhaps even get that coveted European spot.
At the opposite end of the table, three teams stand out as relegation candidates. It would be quite the surprise to me if any of these sides remained in the Premiership at seasons end. First up is Portsmouth. Left a shambles and facing bankruptcy by previous owners, the side has finally found a deep pocketed owner. The problem is the arrival of Sulaiman al Fahim is likely too late to make the changes necessary for immediate success. Most of last year's key players have fled for greener pastures, leave a side lacking any real star quality. With few attacking options and a porous defense, keeper David James is looking at a long season on picking the ball out of his own net. Another current Premiership side that appears to be in deep trouble is Hull City. After a nearly miraculous start to last season, the club completely fell apart and barely survived relegation. US striker Jozy Altidore and Steve Hunt should at least provide a little more offensive spark, but otherwise there is precious little new blood in a side that has won just twice in 30 games. The defense is pedestrian, goalkeeper Matt Duke is a liability and there are whispers that manager Phil Brown may barely last into the season. Barring a stunning development such as a monster season from Altidore, the Tigers are headed back to the Colaship. Finally, as much as I admire the fighting spirit of Burnley's newly promoted side, they are woefully out of their depth in the Premiership. They simply don't have the speed, talent or money to compete on a long-term basis at this level. Their offseason activities seem to acknowledge this, as they have been frugal to say the least. It will be one year in the bright lights, then back to the second division they will go.
So that is one observer's take on the English Premiership 2009-2010. Future posts will deal with the FA Cup and UEFA Champions League. Make sure to save this so you can come back and make fun of me in the spring when I will have proven badly off base.
Until next time, thanks for reading!
Saturday, August 15, 2009
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